Artículo

Research Trends in Wildland Fire Prediction Amidst Climate Change: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis

Resumen

Wildfire prediction plays a vital role in the management and conservation of forest ecosystems. By providing detailed risk assessments, it contributes to the reduction of fire frequency and severity, safeguards forest resources, supports ecological stability, and ensures human safety. This study systematically reviews wildfire prediction literature from 2003 to 2023, emphasizing research trends and collaborative trends. Our findings reveal a significant increase in research activity between 2019 and 2023, primarily driven by the United States Forest Service and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The majority of this research was published in prominent journals such as the International Journal of Wildland Fire, Forest Ecology and Management, Remote Sensing, and Forests. These publications predominantly originate from Europe, the United States, and China. Since 2020, there has been substantial growth in the application of machine learning techniques in predicting forest fires, particularly in estimating fire occurrence probabilities, simulating fire spread, and projecting post-fire environmental impacts. Advanced algorithms, including deep learning and ensemble learning, have shown superior accuracy, suggesting promising directions for future research. Additionally, the integration of machine learning with cellular automata has markedly improved the simulation of fire behavior, enhancing both efficiency and precision. The profound impact of climate change on wildfire prediction also necessitates the inclusion of extensive climate data in predictive models. Beyond conventional studies focusing on fire behavior and occurrence probabilities, forecasting the environmental and ecological consequences of fires has become integral to forest fire management and vital for formulating more effective wildfire strategies. The study concludes that significant regional disparities in knowledge exist, underscoring the need for improved research capabilities in underrepresented areas. Moreover, there is an urgent requirement to enhance the application of artificial intelligence algorithms, such as machine learning, deep learning, and ensemble learning, and to intensify efforts in identifying and leveraging various wildfire drivers to refine prediction accuracy. The insights generated from this field will profoundly augment our understanding of wildfire prediction, assisting policymakers and practitioners in managing forest resources more sustainably and averting future wildfire calamities.
Bao, Mingwei (59233268100); Liu, Jiahao (59233774800); Ren, Hong (59233948300); Liu, Suting (59232750900); Ren, Caixia (57985229400); Chen, Chen (59003767400); Liu, Jianxiang (57984876000)
Research Trends in Wildland Fire Prediction Amidst Climate Change: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis
2024
10.3390/f15071197
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85199526975&doi=10.3390%2ff15071197&partnerID=40&md5=2045d438e04a89740c51d57a9842c8ec
School of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, 650224, China; School of Ecology and Environment, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming, 650224, China
All Open Access; Gold Open Access
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